How does Bend project future emissions?
Bend estimates future emissions according to a company’s public sustainability commitments. Here are some details about how Bend calculates these projections —
First, Bend assumes companies will make steady progress towards their commitments. For example: if a company sets a 2030 Net Zero target with a 2020 baseline, Bend projects that the company will reduce their net emissions 10% every year until 2030 (a 100% reduction spread across 10 years).
Every time a company posts new emissions data, Bend recalculates the path forward, plotting a straight line between a company's latest emissions data and their next active commitment.
If a company has more than one active commitment, Bend assumes the commitments build upon each other, ratcheting forward. For example: if a company has a '50% Reduction by 2025' commitment and a '75% Reduction by 2030' commitment, both with a 2020 baseline, Bend will project that between 2020 and 2025, emissions will be reduced 10% per year, and then between 2025 and 2030, emissions will be reduced at a more gradual 5% per year.
For Net Zero commitments, Bend projects that companies will hit their target with an even split of emissions reductions and purchased offsets (50 / 50). For example: if a company sets a Net Zero 2030 target with a 2020 baseline, Bend projects that in 2030, their emissions will be 50% below their 2020 level, and that year they will also purchase an equivalent quantity of offsets to cover their 50% of remaining emissions.
Of course, the less that companies rely on offsets, the better. Companies who are able to get more specific about their target mix of reductions and offsets are encouraged to pair a Reduction commitment with a Net Zero commitment. For example: if a company sets both a 'Net Zero 2030' commitment and a '75% Reduction by 2030' commitment, Bend would model this as a 75 / 25 split between reductions and offsets, vs. a 50 / 50 split.